DDR2 contract prices rose 55% to 60% in the second quarter of the year and are projected to climb another 35% to 40% in the third, according to research published this week by TrendForce, pushing the AI-driven memory shortage onto a standard that first shipped in 2003 and that the three largest DRAM makers stopped prioritizing years ago. The increases come from buyers redesigning products around older memory to secure supply, and from a split among the handful of remaining DDR2 suppliers, with Winbond reducing output as ESMT expands it.

The shortage hasn’t hit DDR2 directly, but Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have steered wafer capacity toward HBM and server DRAM to feed AI infrastructure spending, thinning the supply of mature-node parts, including DDR4. As DDR4 tightened, OEMs and ODMs began specifying DDR3 in its place, and some DDR3 designs were reworked to use DDR2, with each tier of buyers chasing whatever generation it could still source. The result of this is shortages moving down through successive generations, something we saw unfolding back in March, when earlier data showed DDR3 and DDR2 prices rising 20% to 40% in a single month.

This continues the market inversion we’ve watched unfold throughout the year, as DDR4 climbed past DDR5 on price despite being slower and older, and in which module makers and motherboard vendors restarted DDR4 production after the big three had moved to wind it down.

Winbond and ESMT are the two main remaining sources of DDR2 components, and they’re responding to the squeeze in different ways. Winbond is gradually cutting DDR2 production to shift capacity toward higher-margin DDR3, DDR4, and LPDDR4, while ESMT is doing the reverse, concentrating its wafer allocation at foundry partner PSMC on DDR2 to capture the demand Winbond is tossing aside. Taiwanese suppliers, including Nanya, are already struggling to match the volume of orders migrating down from DDR4, and because new capacity depends on slow process migration, Winbond's withdrawal removes supply faster than ESMT can replace it.

Of course, today’s PCs don’t use DDR2, so we’re likely to see the impact of these price increases landing in areas like embedded systems, networking equipment, industrial controllers, automotive electronics, and other long-lived devices that were designed around it and are too costly to requalify on newer memory generations like DDR4 and five.

The spread of rising contract prices to DDR2 suggests that we’re staring down the barrel of a very long-term DRAM shortage. Contract prices across the wider market are still rising with no sign of levelling off, and meaningful new capacity isn’t expected until late 2027 at the earliest as a best-case scenario.