GTA 6 is expected to draw the highest pre-order figures in video game history, a new analyst report finds, and could top $5 billion in global sales by the end of launch week.
Newzoo released a dedicated analysis of GTA 6 pre-orders tabulated so far. Estimating around $180 million in combined digital sales across the first week in the US and the top five European markets, the firm concludes that Rockstar's long-awaited open-world epic is on a course for "the strongest pre-order campaign ever recorded." (Reminder: there are no real physical copies of GTA 6.)
These six markets represent roughly 69% of lifetime console players for GTA 5, Newzoo adds. Gaming demographics have shifted a bit since GTA 5 was released approximately 37 years ago, but this is still a solid base for GTA 6 estimates. Estimating uncounted regions, week-one pre-order sales may have been as high as $260 million.
"Placed on the sales curve GTA 6 is likely to follow, that puts it on pace for $3.3 - $5.2 billion in cumulative global sales by the end of launch week," the report reads. This is quite a large range, but even the low end would be monolithic – factors higher than Rockstar's estimated development budget.
This range exists because Newzoo is using this $180 million start as the base for three different models: the "brand-new IP," the "sequel with performance uncertainty," and "the proven sequel - a known quantity." GTA 6, obviously, "will most closely resemble the proven sequel curve," which sees more linear growth and less of a "hockey stick" spike associated with new IP.
"Massively anticipated each release with a tried and tested formula," Newzoo says of such games. "The audience is aggregated, loyal and established. They don’t need to ‘wait and see’, so a higher share of the total revenue is booked early in the pre-order window."
Splitting the difference a bit, "GTA 6 is on pace for $4.5 billion in sales by launch week (roughly 51 million units at an assumed $88 average selling price)."
Newzoo also (correctly) skewers "social media reports" suggesting Rockstar had already raked in billions in revenue through GTA 6 pre-orders. Such figures were bafflingly repeated by a Rockstar union representative, who claimed the company can "easily afford" to meet union demands after "reportedly" earning $3 billion in pre-orders. Rockstar's pot of gold is beyond question, but you've got a better shot at a snowball fight in Hell than any unreleased premium game selling upwards of 30 million copies in a few weeks. Not even GTA 6 can eat the mountains and drink the seas.
Addressing claims GTA has "done a billion dollars in pre-orders," the report adds, "This is absurd. Given how pre-order curves look, nothing ever has and nothing ever will in the near future."
GTA 5 producer John Ricchio reckons GTA 6 is skipping PC at launch, not because Rockstar doesn't care about the platform, but because consoles had to be prioritized.
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