Xbox Project Helix Predicted To Sell Just Two Million Consoles In Its First Year

Even though it previously looked like it might be on the cusp of leaving hardware behind, Xbox is pushing forward with Project Helix, its next console that could be released as soon as next year. It's already looking bleak for its potential sales numbers, however, with analysts estimating the new Xbox is unlikely to sell more than two million units during its first year.

An analysis published by Gamesindustry.biz that largely covers how console sales have been doing recently and how current-gen sales are likely to plummet in the coming months also includes a forecast for Project Helix sales.

Project Helix Predicted To Sell Just Two Million Consoles In Its First Year

Xbox controller illuminated in green on a desk beside a keyboard.

S&P Global analysts predict that Project Helix will sell just two million units in its first year. There are a lot of figures that prediction can be compared to to demonstrate just how low that number is. In the very same report, it’s noted that 3.2 million Xbox Series X|S consoles were sold in 2025. That’s Xbox’s worst year ever, for now.

The original Xbox sold around 3.9 million units during its first 12 months; its successful younger sibling, the Xbox 360, sold around 5.9 million, while the Xbox One sold almost ten million in its first year, having hit one million consoles sold after just 24 hours.

Reminder that the Xbox One is considered to be the company’s biggest flop to date when it comes to home consoles.

Xbox Is Expected To Release Its Next Console In 2028

Xbox controller illuminated in red and green over a series of tubes.

Even though there remains a distinct possibility that Project Helix is here by 2027 - you never can tell what Xbox is going to do from one day to the next - S&P doesn’t seem to think there will be a new Xbox console until 2028. The good news for anyone from Xbox reading into these numbers is that S&P expects sales figures to grow in 2029 and then again in 2030.

S&P’s forecast has Project Helix selling an additional five million consoles, or close to it, in 2029, and then 7.3 million more in 2030, potentially bringing the new console’s total sales up to 15 million in its first three years.

That’s where the chart ends, but unless that number continues to rise, there’s very little belief among experts right now that Project Helix is going to have what it takes to avoid becoming Xbox’s least successful console ever. It will need to surpass the 24 million original Xbox consoles sold to avoid that fate.

The biggest question of all is whether Xbox really cares. The leading reason Project Helix is expected to have such low sales numbers is because it is almost certainly going to cost more than $1,000, at least twice as much as the Series X was at launch. With such a big price tag, there will be an expectation to sell fewer units, but because they’re so much more expensive, it might not hurt as much. Although as the price of RAM continues to skyrocket, manufacturing new consoles is only going to keep getting more expensive throughout the rest of this decade.