Following the news of Microsoft's plan to cut 3,200 employees at Xbox, analysts predict that the company's next-generation console won't do as well as PlayStation's – yet again.
The new predictions come straight from S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan (as per GamesIndustry.biz), with its analysis first looking back at the past – and current – market.
"For now, the market faces a compounding problem: hardware that is either too old or too expensive for the median consumer, a software slate that is thin outside a handful of tentpole releases, and a macro environment that keeps any meaningful price relief off the table."
That checks out. Between the RAM shortages and Sony's announcement regarding its plan to axe physical discs for all new PlayStation games starting in 2028, it's not looking great for consoles. All of this, coupled with an "unhealthy Xbox," as the Microsoft gaming brand's CEO Asha Sharma dubs it, proves as much.
Nonetheless, S&P's console forecast works out what sales Sony and Xbox might see in the future – even if they're not as impressive.
Starting with Sony, the analysis notes that the PlayStation 5's own sales have dipped, and "S&P expects shipments to decline further" this year. The recent PlayStation 5 price increase, which saw the base console rise to $650 and Pro to a whopping $900, isn't helping.
We are talking about a "six-year-old device," as S&P puts it – and the analysts aren't sure big launches like GTA 6 are enough to make up for this price gap.
"That framing does not inspire confidence for 2027 or beyond."
Still, S&P's "forecast models a potential PlayStation 6 launch in 2028, contributing four million units in its first year and scaling to 17.2 million by 2030." Those figures might not look like all that much, especially when taking the Nintendo Switch 2 and its 17 million sales into account, but they're a whole lot better than what S&P thinks Xbox might see around the same time.
The firm predicts the next Xbox console – codenamed Project Helix – will sell about two million units in its first year post-launch, rising to just 7.3 million by 2030. That's… a lot smaller a figure than the 17.2 million S&P thinks the PlayStation 6 might hit.
But, as the analysis notes, "The actual outcome could look very different. A fully open PC platform with Xbox branding would not really resemble a console and likely not be counted in this model."
It concludes: "Our forecast is functionally splitting the difference between a proper Xbox successor and an Xbox-certification program with PC OEMs, and readers should treat the post-2027 Microsoft trajectory as a range of outcomes contingent on decisions yet to be made or revealed."
That makes sense, I suppose. After all, we don't know too much about Project Helix, and Xbox has been hard on its journey to bridge the gap between console and PC.
Should the new Xbox, whatever it may look like, sell that much less than its PlayStation counterpart, though… I'm not sure how things will play out on either end.
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